Covid: These 10 States Are Likely To Be Worst-Hit By Omicron Surge

New Delhi: India may be saddled with 3-10 lakh Covid-19 cases a day, driven by the highly transmissible Omicron variant, at the peak of the third wave, according to a statistical model by the Indian Institute of Science and Indian Statistical Institute researchers.  According to the researchers, Covid-19 cases may peak sometime in the beginning of February and flatten by the end of that month. The model predicts the number of Covid cases based on three levels of susceptibility -- 30 per cent, 60 per cent and 100 per cent.  At 30 per cent susceptibility, India may see 3 lakh cases per day. At 60 per cent susceptibility, India could see six lakh cases per day and at 100 per cent susceptibility, the country may register 10 lakh cases per day.  So far, India has detected more than 2,100 cases of the Omicron variant across 24 states and UTs. At a press conference, the Health Ministry said Omicron was the predominant circulating strain in the country. Covid: These 10 States Are Likely To Be Worst-Hit By Omicron Surge 1) Maharashtra Maharashtra is likely to be the worst affected due to Covid-19 among other states. At 100 per cent susceptibility, Maharashtra may see over 175,000 daily cases at its peak. At 30 per cent susceptibility, the state may register 50,000 daily cases. This is expected around mid-January. The Covid curve is expected to flatten before March. Maharashtra reported 26,538 new Covid-19 cases and eight deaths on Wednesday. READ | India Records First Omicron Death In Rajasthan’s Udaipur 2) Karnataka After Maharashtra, Karnataka is likely to be the most affected state, registering over 120,000 daily cases at 100 per cent susceptibility. Cases are likely to peak around February 1. At 30 per cent susceptibility, the daily cases may touch the 40,000 mark.  3) Kerala Kerala, one of the worst-hit states during the second wave last year, may see over 100,000 cases at its peak at 100 per cent susceptibility. Cases may peak by the last week of January and the curve is likely to flatten by the first week of March, the model predicts. At 30 percent susceptibility, cases may touch 40,000, with the curve flattening by the second week of February.  4) Tamil Nadu Cases may touch the 100,000 mark in Tamil Nadu at its peak in the first week of February at 100 per cent susceptibility, the model predicts. In that case, the Covid curve will flatten by mid-March. At 30 per cent susceptibility, cases may cross the 20,000 mark during the last week of January. If this happens, then the curve will flatten before March. 5) Uttar Pradesh Northern states are less likely to bear the brunt of the third wave of Covid pandemic. At the fifith spot, Uttar Pradesh may register 80,000 daily cases by the last week of January at 100 per cent susceptibility. At 30 per cent susceptibility, cases may surpass the 20,000 mark by mid-January, with the curve flattening by mid-February.  6) Delhi At its peak around mid-January, the national capital may record 70,000 daily cases at 100 per cent susceptibility. In this scenario, the curve will flatten after mid-February. At 30 per cent susceptibility, Delhi may see over 20,000 daily cases. If this happens, the curve will flatten in the first week of February.  7) Andhra Pradesh The Indian Statistical Institute model predicts 50,000 daily cases in Andhra Pradesh with 100 per cent susceptibility at its peak, which may hit around the first week of February. The curve will flatten around mid-March. At 30 per cent susceptibility, the state may report around 15,000 daily cases at its peak, with the curve flattening sometime before the end of February.  8) Chhattisgarh Covid cases are likely to peak in Chhattisgarh during the first week of February and the state may see 50,000 daily cases projected at 100 per cent susceptibility. Cases will start to decline around the last week of March. At 30 per cent susceptibility, Chhattisgarh may record 16,000-17,000 daily cases in the last week of January, with the curve flattening around mid-February.  9) Gujarat At the ninth sport, Gujarat may touch the 50,000 daily cases mark at its peak at 100 per cent susceptibility in the last week of January, with the curve flattening before March. At 30 per cent susceptibility, Gujarat may see 15,000 to 16,000 daily cases at its peak around mid-January. In this scenario, the curve will flatten in the first week of February.  10) Rajasthan Like Gujarat, Rajasthan may also see 50,000 daily cases at its peak around February 1 at 100 per cent susceptibility. The curve in this case will flatten by March. At 30 per cent susceptibility, the desert state may register 15,000 cases around mid January, with the curve flattening around mid-February. 

Covid: These 10 States Are Likely To Be Worst-Hit By Omicron Surge

New Delhi: India may be saddled with 3-10 lakh Covid-19 cases a day, driven by the highly transmissible Omicron variant, at the peak of the third wave, according to a statistical model by the Indian Institute of Science and Indian Statistical Institute researchers. 

According to the researchers, Covid-19 cases may peak sometime in the beginning of February and flatten by the end of that month.

The model predicts the number of Covid cases based on three levels of susceptibility -- 30 per cent, 60 per cent and 100 per cent. 

At 30 per cent susceptibility, India may see 3 lakh cases per day. At 60 per cent susceptibility, India could see six lakh cases per day and at 100 per cent susceptibility, the country may register 10 lakh cases per day. 

So far, India has detected more than 2,100 cases of the Omicron variant across 24 states and UTs. At a press conference, the Health Ministry said Omicron was the predominant circulating strain in the country.


Covid: These 10 States Are Likely To Be Worst-Hit By Omicron Surge

1) Maharashtra

Maharashtra is likely to be the worst affected due to Covid-19 among other states. At 100 per cent susceptibility, Maharashtra may see over 175,000 daily cases at its peak. At 30 per cent susceptibility, the state may register 50,000 daily cases. This is expected around mid-January.

The Covid curve is expected to flatten before March. Maharashtra reported 26,538 new Covid-19 cases and eight deaths on Wednesday.

READ | India Records First Omicron Death In Rajasthan’s Udaipur

2) Karnataka

After Maharashtra, Karnataka is likely to be the most affected state, registering over 120,000 daily cases at 100 per cent susceptibility. Cases are likely to peak around February 1. At 30 per cent susceptibility, the daily cases may touch the 40,000 mark. 

3) Kerala

Kerala, one of the worst-hit states during the second wave last year, may see over 100,000 cases at its peak at 100 per cent susceptibility. Cases may peak by the last week of January and the curve is likely to flatten by the first week of March, the model predicts. At 30 percent susceptibility, cases may touch 40,000, with the curve flattening by the second week of February. 

4) Tamil Nadu

Cases may touch the 100,000 mark in Tamil Nadu at its peak in the first week of February at 100 per cent susceptibility, the model predicts. In that case, the Covid curve will flatten by mid-March. At 30 per cent susceptibility, cases may cross the 20,000 mark during the last week of January. If this happens, then the curve will flatten before March.

5) Uttar Pradesh

Northern states are less likely to bear the brunt of the third wave of Covid pandemic. At the fifith spot, Uttar Pradesh may register 80,000 daily cases by the last week of January at 100 per cent susceptibility. At 30 per cent susceptibility, cases may surpass the 20,000 mark by mid-January, with the curve flattening by mid-February. 

6) Delhi

At its peak around mid-January, the national capital may record 70,000 daily cases at 100 per cent susceptibility. In this scenario, the curve will flatten after mid-February. At 30 per cent susceptibility, Delhi may see over 20,000 daily cases. If this happens, the curve will flatten in the first week of February. 

7) Andhra Pradesh

The Indian Statistical Institute model predicts 50,000 daily cases in Andhra Pradesh with 100 per cent susceptibility at its peak, which may hit around the first week of February. The curve will flatten around mid-March. At 30 per cent susceptibility, the state may report around 15,000 daily cases at its peak, with the curve flattening sometime before the end of February. 

8) Chhattisgarh

Covid cases are likely to peak in Chhattisgarh during the first week of February and the state may see 50,000 daily cases projected at 100 per cent susceptibility. Cases will start to decline around the last week of March. At 30 per cent susceptibility, Chhattisgarh may record 16,000-17,000 daily cases in the last week of January, with the curve flattening around mid-February. 

9) Gujarat

At the ninth sport, Gujarat may touch the 50,000 daily cases mark at its peak at 100 per cent susceptibility in the last week of January, with the curve flattening before March. At 30 per cent susceptibility, Gujarat may see 15,000 to 16,000 daily cases at its peak around mid-January. In this scenario, the curve will flatten in the first week of February. 

10) Rajasthan

Like Gujarat, Rajasthan may also see 50,000 daily cases at its peak around February 1 at 100 per cent susceptibility. The curve in this case will flatten by March. At 30 per cent susceptibility, the desert state may register 15,000 cases around mid January, with the curve flattening around mid-February.